One purpose of the census is to give us population data in order to determine the relative political power of the states .
A new estimate of the 2010 census is out, calculating which states lose or gain house seats and therefore electoral votes.
The list is (the parenthesis indicated the Cook Partisan Voting Index of how Republican or Democrat the state is):
Utah (20R) +1
Texas (10R) +4
South Carolina (8R) +1
Georgia (7R) +1
Arizona (6R) +1
Florida (2R) +2
Nevada (1D) +1
Washington (5D) +1
Massachusetts (12D) -1
New York (10D) -2
Illinois (8D) -1
Michigan (4D) -1
New Jersey (4D) -1
Pennsylvania. (2D) -1
Iowa, (1D) -1
Louisiana (10R) -1
Ohio (1R) -2
Missouri (3R) -1
Basically you have Republican states getting net +6 seats and the Democrat states losing -6. This means 1 more Kansas sized state to the Republicans.
Another way of counting is that solidly Republican states gain 7, solidly Democrat states lose 5, and battleground states lose 2.
In a 2008-style major victory, none of this matters. But if we in 2012 get an even year like 2000 or 2004, this redistribution of power might influence the outcome.
You need 270 for a majority (269 if your party controls the house). Start with the 2004 map.
Bush got 286, taking three Democrat states of Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. With the new figures, he would have gotten 294.
This means a Republican aiming for the Bush map in 2012 can afford to lose 24 electoral votes. For example he can win even though losing:
New Mexico and Iowa and Nevada and 7 more electoral votes
New Mexico and Iowa and Colorado and 4 more electoral votes
Ohio + either Iowa or Nevada or New Mexico
There are 3 reasons political power is shifting. One reason is that Democrat states have a lower rate of reproduction, and lose people. This is a pure republican win.
Another reason is immigration. Since immigrants are leftwing, this means that while the red states are getting larger, they are also getting less red (witness Nevada that is trending to the Democrats). It is not clear who this benefits, sometimes the Republicans, sometimes the Democrats. Over the long run I think the Democrats.
Lastly you have native Americans moving between states. It would be interesting to study how this effects political views.
Are the people who are moving on average republicans sick of the expensive, high tax blue states? That could make the new states even more red (for example there is the notion that out of California migrants did this in the Rocky Mountain states).
Are they typical liberal blue state voters who bring their values with them? That would make the red states more blue. This seems to have happened in New Hampshire where Democrats from Massachusetts settled.
A last possibility that I suspect has some explanatory power is that the (on averge) more blue voters in time will be effected by the social pressures and information in their new states to move rightwing.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
A short comment on the Swedish 2010 election
The 2006-2010 Reinfeldt government undertook a lot of supply side reforms, mainly of taxes and insurance systems.
These reforms take time to generate results. More importantly, the crisis in the short term dominated the long term effect of the reforms. Thus a lower share of Swedes are employed now than in 2006, not because Reinfeldt and Borg's reforms don't work, but because of the global crisis.
Even of the government does nothing major new for 4 years (and it will), it will still reap the benefits of the stuff it did before. In 2014, several hundred thousand more Swedes will be employed than now.
If the Social Democrats had won, they would get the benefit of all of the Alliance reforms, which would unfairly be seen as a sign that Social Democratic economic policy generates more jobs than free-market economic policy.
In this sense it matters less that Reinfeldt did not capture a full majority.
It is generally a major problem that voters confuse the effects of the business cycle with the effects of economic reforms.
These reforms take time to generate results. More importantly, the crisis in the short term dominated the long term effect of the reforms. Thus a lower share of Swedes are employed now than in 2006, not because Reinfeldt and Borg's reforms don't work, but because of the global crisis.
Even of the government does nothing major new for 4 years (and it will), it will still reap the benefits of the stuff it did before. In 2014, several hundred thousand more Swedes will be employed than now.
If the Social Democrats had won, they would get the benefit of all of the Alliance reforms, which would unfairly be seen as a sign that Social Democratic economic policy generates more jobs than free-market economic policy.
In this sense it matters less that Reinfeldt did not capture a full majority.
It is generally a major problem that voters confuse the effects of the business cycle with the effects of economic reforms.
Day 5: Oracle Open World Wrap
The presentations were all taped and should be up on the website shortly. Stay tuned for more information as it becomes available. If you followed us on Twitter, please let us know what you think by sending us messages.
The Verizon presentation on Directory Server Enterprise Edition and using Fracational Replication was a highlight for me. It should have been scheduled earlier in the week so that more people could have attended. Verizon has one of the largest directory deployments in the world with 40+ million identities and many partners and LOB's using it as their repository. The Verizon deployment is also a great example of using Fractional Replication to empower LOB's with their own identity repository but allowing the central team to maintain the control over the data. Verizon is also a great example of using SSO to reduce cost and maintain a great User Experience across many different portals. Madhu, thanks for sharing such great information with the identity management community. I will post the presentation once it is available on the website.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Day 4: IDM at Oracle Open World
Hope you enjoyed the Black Eyed Peas last night. We have an action packed IDM session on Thursday to finish up the show. Here is a quick run down of the sessions. Etienne and I will be introducing Verizon as we talk about how Replication and Fractional Replication are critical features in a high performance Directory Server deployment.
· Follow us on Twitter @OracleIDM. Use hash tags #oow10idm| Time | Title | Location |
| 9:00 am – 10:00 am | Middleware s317487 End-t-End Secure Identity Propagation | Moscone South Rm 310 |
| Middleware, Applications s316524 Oracle Idenity Management for Oracle JD Edwards EntrpriseOne | Moscone South Rm 309 | |
| 10:30 am – 11:30 am | Middleware s316991 Database User Management wit Oracle Directry Services and Actve Directry | Moscone South Rm 310 |
| Middleware s316837 Deploy a Highly Performant Entitlements Solution wit Oracle Entitlements Server | Moscone South Rm 309 | |
| Middleware s317270 Service-Oriented Security: Simplifing Identity Management for Applications | Moscone West L3, Rm 3018 | |
| 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm | Middleware s316829 Demystfing IdM: A Custmer’s Guide to a Practical IdM Deployment Strategy | Moscone South, Rm 309 |
| 1:30 pm – 2:30 pm | Middleware S315086 Replication Best Approaches on Directory Server - Fractional Replication | Moscone South Rm 309 |
| Middleware S316829 Demystifing IdM: A Customer’s Guide t a Practical IdM Deployment Stategy | ||
| 3:00pm – 4:00pm | Middleware s314871 Oracle Identity Manager and Oracle BPEL Tools for Digital Identity Management | |
| 3:00pm – 4:00pm | Middleware s314871 Oracle Identity Manager and Oracle BPEL Tools for Digital Identity Management | Moscone Sout Rm 309 |
| 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm | Middleware/Oracle Develop S317543 Service Orientd Security 101 | Hotel Nikko Mendocino I / II |
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Data on the 2010 Swedish election
Some analysis of the election based on the exit polls and on the latest large survey of voters.
1. The trend for LO (workers union) members to abandon the left continues. In 1994 66% of LO-members voted for Social-Democrats. This election it was 51%.
Many have gone to other left of center parties. But not all. In total, the share of LO members who voted for any left alternative has declined since 1994.
2. As late as 2002 44% of Swedish voters consider themselves left and 34% right. After the Moderate party done away with much of the libertarian parts of their platform and rhetoric, this changed.
In this election, 42% of Swedish voters consider themselves right, whereas only 38% consider themselves left.
The right has gone from a -10 to +4 in self-identification.
Of course what "right" means in Sweden is very different from what right means in the U.S. But there are meaningful differences in terms of which path you want to take society and how you self-identify. American observers of Sweden should keep this trend in mind.
3. While Sweden-Democrats are over-represented among the unemployed and other types of welfare recipients, my calculations using the exit polls and SCB is that the majority of their voters are in fact employed. An additional large group are students in college or high-school.
Overall among young men and first time voters SD does well, which probably means they will continue to grow at least for a while.
4. It seems hard to poll a party who those in polite company consider racist.
This is the third time the exit poll under-estimated the Sweden-Democrats. On average the Sweden-Democrat seem to get 25-30% more in final votes than when someone personally asks them who they voted for.
The normal polls underestimated their support by about one tenth, or in absolute terms 0.5%.
Here is how the polling firms did in their last poll:
United Minds: (internet panel) Overestimated by 25%
Synovate: Overestimated by 4%, got it almost exactly right.
Demoskop: Underesimated by 11%
Skop: Underesimated by 12%
Novus: Underestimated by 25%
Sifo: Underestimated by 33%
For all of September, here is how the polling firms did compared to the average of the polling firms in terms of percentage points:
Sifo: -1%
Novus: -0.6%
Skop: -0.6%
Demoskop: -0.45%
Synovate: +0.3%
United Minds: +0.7%
One conclusion is that United Minds internet based poll overestimated the support for SD, because SD is overrepresented among internet savvy people in a way that United Minds has been able to sufficiently control for through sampling weights.
Synovate seems to have gotten it right this time, either through luck or superior polling methods.
The other 4 polling firms under-estimate the support for SD by about one fifth. So if tomorrow they tell us SD has 4% support, the true support is 5%.
5. There is a weird tradition among Swedish political scientists to claim that party leader does not much influence election outcomes (they claim this with confidence, even though we have no way of identifying the counter-factual).
My instincts is that this is false. Just like Americans, Swedes judge the competence and character of the party leaders, in particular the prime minister candidates.
Case in point:
A historic 45% of Moderate party voters mentioned Fredrik Reinfeldt as important for their choice.
In comparison Social Democratic party leader Mona Sahlin only got 19%
Sweden is no longer a Social Democratic country. But nor is it a moderate, classically liberal right of center country as some commentators seem to believe. Instead it is now roughly evenly divided between the left and the right. What made the right crush the Social Democrats was that we have a popular, competent leader, while Mona Sahlin is dim and does not convey confidence.
This could easily change 4 years from now.
(A sign of danger for the left and right both is that 31 year old SD-Leader Jimmy Åkesson is as popular with his party as Carl Bildt was with the Moderates in 1998)
6. In an election where the left block was decimated, 77% of non-European immigrants voted for the left. Immigrants in Sweden are very leftist.
Of native Swedes, I estimate that only 42% voted for any of the 3 left parties. If it were not for leftist support from immigrants, Sweden would now have a majority right government.
For now, the non-European immigrant share of the voting population is relatively small (around 2%). But it is growing each election. The libertarians who want to increase immigration based on irresponsible dogma are swiftly destroying the prospects of Sweden to take a more free market path.
1. The trend for LO (workers union) members to abandon the left continues. In 1994 66% of LO-members voted for Social-Democrats. This election it was 51%.
Many have gone to other left of center parties. But not all. In total, the share of LO members who voted for any left alternative has declined since 1994.
2. As late as 2002 44% of Swedish voters consider themselves left and 34% right. After the Moderate party done away with much of the libertarian parts of their platform and rhetoric, this changed.
In this election, 42% of Swedish voters consider themselves right, whereas only 38% consider themselves left.
The right has gone from a -10 to +4 in self-identification.
Of course what "right" means in Sweden is very different from what right means in the U.S. But there are meaningful differences in terms of which path you want to take society and how you self-identify. American observers of Sweden should keep this trend in mind.
3. While Sweden-Democrats are over-represented among the unemployed and other types of welfare recipients, my calculations using the exit polls and SCB is that the majority of their voters are in fact employed. An additional large group are students in college or high-school.
Overall among young men and first time voters SD does well, which probably means they will continue to grow at least for a while.
4. It seems hard to poll a party who those in polite company consider racist.
This is the third time the exit poll under-estimated the Sweden-Democrats. On average the Sweden-Democrat seem to get 25-30% more in final votes than when someone personally asks them who they voted for.
The normal polls underestimated their support by about one tenth, or in absolute terms 0.5%.
Here is how the polling firms did in their last poll:
United Minds: (internet panel) Overestimated by 25%
Synovate: Overestimated by 4%, got it almost exactly right.
Demoskop: Underesimated by 11%
Skop: Underesimated by 12%
Novus: Underestimated by 25%
Sifo: Underestimated by 33%
For all of September, here is how the polling firms did compared to the average of the polling firms in terms of percentage points:
Sifo: -1%
Novus: -0.6%
Skop: -0.6%
Demoskop: -0.45%
Synovate: +0.3%
United Minds: +0.7%
One conclusion is that United Minds internet based poll overestimated the support for SD, because SD is overrepresented among internet savvy people in a way that United Minds has been able to sufficiently control for through sampling weights.
Synovate seems to have gotten it right this time, either through luck or superior polling methods.
The other 4 polling firms under-estimate the support for SD by about one fifth. So if tomorrow they tell us SD has 4% support, the true support is 5%.
5. There is a weird tradition among Swedish political scientists to claim that party leader does not much influence election outcomes (they claim this with confidence, even though we have no way of identifying the counter-factual).
My instincts is that this is false. Just like Americans, Swedes judge the competence and character of the party leaders, in particular the prime minister candidates.
Case in point:
A historic 45% of Moderate party voters mentioned Fredrik Reinfeldt as important for their choice.
In comparison Social Democratic party leader Mona Sahlin only got 19%
Sweden is no longer a Social Democratic country. But nor is it a moderate, classically liberal right of center country as some commentators seem to believe. Instead it is now roughly evenly divided between the left and the right. What made the right crush the Social Democrats was that we have a popular, competent leader, while Mona Sahlin is dim and does not convey confidence.
This could easily change 4 years from now.
(A sign of danger for the left and right both is that 31 year old SD-Leader Jimmy Åkesson is as popular with his party as Carl Bildt was with the Moderates in 1998)
6. In an election where the left block was decimated, 77% of non-European immigrants voted for the left. Immigrants in Sweden are very leftist.
Of native Swedes, I estimate that only 42% voted for any of the 3 left parties. If it were not for leftist support from immigrants, Sweden would now have a majority right government.
For now, the non-European immigrant share of the voting population is relatively small (around 2%). But it is growing each election. The libertarians who want to increase immigration based on irresponsible dogma are swiftly destroying the prospects of Sweden to take a more free market path.
Poverty and the Recession: Is The Worst Still Ahead?
Reports released over the last few days provide final dating for the 2007-2009 recession and data on U.S. poverty and income for 2009. How are they related? How did the recession affect poverty? Now that the recession is officially over, can we expect that the worse is behind us in terms of poverty and income?
The Census Bureau report showed the poverty rate rising from 13.2 percent in 2008 to 14.3 percent in 2009, the highest rate since the early 1980s. The figure that grabbed the headlines, however, was not the overall rate but that for working-age Americans, which climbed to 12.9 percent, its highest level since the Census Bureau's continuous data series began 35 years ago. The remarkable increase in working-age poverty is undoubtedly linked to the extreme rate of long-term unemployment, which has risen far above its levels of any previous recession. The economic distress of the working-age population is further indicated by the record numbers of people without heath insurance, also a subject of the Census Bureau report.
Is the worst behind us? Unfortunately, there is little reason to hope that it is. In recessions of the 1960s and 1970s, the peak rate of unemployment tended to coincide with the year in which the recession ended, but starting with the dual recessions of 1980-82, the picture changed. Since then, peak poverty has begun to lag farther and farther behind each recession.
The bottom line: We can expect even worse poverty data in 2010 and probably in 2011 as well.
Follow this link to download a free set of classroom-ready slides with charts and analysis based on the 2009 poverty report.
The Census Bureau report showed the poverty rate rising from 13.2 percent in 2008 to 14.3 percent in 2009, the highest rate since the early 1980s. The figure that grabbed the headlines, however, was not the overall rate but that for working-age Americans, which climbed to 12.9 percent, its highest level since the Census Bureau's continuous data series began 35 years ago. The remarkable increase in working-age poverty is undoubtedly linked to the extreme rate of long-term unemployment, which has risen far above its levels of any previous recession. The economic distress of the working-age population is further indicated by the record numbers of people without heath insurance, also a subject of the Census Bureau report.
Is the worst behind us? Unfortunately, there is little reason to hope that it is. In recessions of the 1960s and 1970s, the peak rate of unemployment tended to coincide with the year in which the recession ended, but starting with the dual recessions of 1980-82, the picture changed. Since then, peak poverty has begun to lag farther and farther behind each recession.
The bottom line: We can expect even worse poverty data in 2010 and probably in 2011 as well.
Follow this link to download a free set of classroom-ready slides with charts and analysis based on the 2009 poverty report.
Poverty and the Recession: Is The Worst Still Ahead?
Reports released over the last few days provide final dating for the 2007-2009 recession and data on U.S. poverty and income for 2009. How are they related? How did the recession affect poverty? Now that the recession is officially over, can we expect that the worse is behind us in terms of poverty and income?
The Census Bureau report showed the poverty rate rising from 13.2 percent in 2008 to 14.3 percent in 2009, the highest rate since the early 1980s. The figure that grabbed the headlines, however, was not the overall rate but that for working-age Americans, which climbed to 12.9 percent, its highest level since the Census Bureau's continuous data series began 35 years ago. The remarkable increase in working-age poverty is undoubtedly linked to the extreme rate of long-term unemployment, which has risen far above its levels of any previous recession. The economic distress of the working-age population is further indicated by the record numbers of people without heath insurance, also a subject of the Census Bureau report.
Is the worst behind us? Unfortunately, there is little reason to hope that it is. In recessions of the 1960s and 1970s, the peak rate of unemployment tended to coincide with the year in which the recession ended, but starting with the dual recessions of 1980-82, the picture changed. Since then, peak poverty has begun to lag farther and farther behind each recession.
The bottom line: We can expect even worse poverty data in 2010 and probably in 2011 as well.
Follow this link to download a free set of classroom-ready slides with charts and analysis based on the 2009 poverty report.
The Census Bureau report showed the poverty rate rising from 13.2 percent in 2008 to 14.3 percent in 2009, the highest rate since the early 1980s. The figure that grabbed the headlines, however, was not the overall rate but that for working-age Americans, which climbed to 12.9 percent, its highest level since the Census Bureau's continuous data series began 35 years ago. The remarkable increase in working-age poverty is undoubtedly linked to the extreme rate of long-term unemployment, which has risen far above its levels of any previous recession. The economic distress of the working-age population is further indicated by the record numbers of people without heath insurance, also a subject of the Census Bureau report.
Is the worst behind us? Unfortunately, there is little reason to hope that it is. In recessions of the 1960s and 1970s, the peak rate of unemployment tended to coincide with the year in which the recession ended, but starting with the dual recessions of 1980-82, the picture changed. Since then, peak poverty has begun to lag farther and farther behind each recession.
The bottom line: We can expect even worse poverty data in 2010 and probably in 2011 as well.
Follow this link to download a free set of classroom-ready slides with charts and analysis based on the 2009 poverty report.
Day 2: Access Management at OOW
Oracle Open World is off to a great start with plenty of good content and demo's for the business owner or technical implementation team. Yesterday I saw two great demos from the OAM team. Mark Karlstrand, pictured to the right was giving a demo on OTP Anywhere to Bob Blakeley. It was impressive as he used his cell phone to provide a stronger authentication method for a bank transfer -demo not real but you get the point.
There are a couple of ways to follow what is going on during the show.
You can follow us on Twitter by using the hash tags #oow10 #idm or follow us directly @OracleIDM.
We also are uploading pictures and video's from the day at our Facebook page at Facebook/OracleIDM here.
Here are the sessions for Tuesday, Sept. 21 at Oracle Open World
| Time | Title | Location |
| 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm | Middleware s317146 Securing Web Services: Solutions, Best Practices, | Moscone South Rm 309 |
| 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm | Middleware s317467 Simplify Identity Management and Support Future Growth with Directory Services | Moscone South Rm 309 |
| 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm | Middleware s317064 Oracle Identity Management Administration Best Practices | Moscone South Rm 309 |
| 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm | Middleware s317240 Oracle’s Identity Management Strategy (for Sun, Oracle and New Customers Alike) | Moscone South Rm 310 |
| 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm | Middleware s317484 Case Study: How Cisco Achieved Large-Scale, Highly Available Access Management | Moscone South Rm 310 |
| 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm | Middleware s317244 Enforcing Segregation-of-Duties Controls with Identity Management | Moscone South Rm 309 |
Growth with Directory Services
3:30 pm – 4:30 pm Middleware s317064 Oracle Identity Management Administration Best Moscone South Rm 309
Practices
Middleware s317240 Oracle’s Identity Management Strategy (for Sun, Moscone South Rm 310
Oracle and New Customers Alike)
Middleware s317484 Case Study: How Cisco Achieved Large-Scale, Highly Moscone South, Rm 310
Available Access Management
Middleware s317244 Enforcing Segregation-of-Duties Controls with Identity Moscone South Rm 309
Management
Monday, September 20, 2010
Krugman criticism from Rajan
Paul Krugman is very smart, tremendously well-informed and a skilled writer. But he lacks wisdom, judgment and character. Thus he has become not only partisan, but also exceptionally dishonest as a debater.
There is a professional ethic among economists to be intellectually honest in debates. Krugman keeps violating this rule, with articles heavy on ad-hominem personal attacks, straw-man misrepresentations of the claims of his opponent, a refusal to ever admit that he is wrong, and ignoring fact and logic whenever it suits him just to appear stronger in the debate.
Everything is about maximizing the short run argument in favor of the policies that Krugman favors, rather than finding out the truth, which is what economists are supposedly supposed to do.
For example Krugman pretends that European policies do not harm economic performance by looking at growth rates, despite the fact that he knows perfectly well that established economic theory predicts that the costs of policies that dampen economic activity appear as different levels of output, not growth paths.
Krugman's audience are unsophisticated non-trained economists, which makes all his violations of the academic rule of conduct worse.
When the policies pushed by Krugman did worse than he promised, he does not update his views. He just becomes even louder, claiming that the lack of success of Krugmaonomics just proves we need more of the exact same Krugman-style economics.
Imagine Krugman's reaction if the Bush administration people argued that the failure of their foreign policy and economic policy just proves we need more of the exact same recipe.
One of Krugman's dubious and partisan claims is that government policies to increase home ownership among poor americans and minorities had nothing to do with the sub prime-mortgage bubble. Here star Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago professor takes Krugman to task. Read it carefully.
If I understand the history involved correctly, the government sponsored enterprises that we have all come to know and love in the last few years invented sub-prime mortgage backed securities (MBS), which gives them a part of the blame of the crisis even if they had done nothing after this (which they did).
So, go read it all. It´s good for you.
There is a professional ethic among economists to be intellectually honest in debates. Krugman keeps violating this rule, with articles heavy on ad-hominem personal attacks, straw-man misrepresentations of the claims of his opponent, a refusal to ever admit that he is wrong, and ignoring fact and logic whenever it suits him just to appear stronger in the debate.
Everything is about maximizing the short run argument in favor of the policies that Krugman favors, rather than finding out the truth, which is what economists are supposedly supposed to do.
For example Krugman pretends that European policies do not harm economic performance by looking at growth rates, despite the fact that he knows perfectly well that established economic theory predicts that the costs of policies that dampen economic activity appear as different levels of output, not growth paths.
Krugman's audience are unsophisticated non-trained economists, which makes all his violations of the academic rule of conduct worse.
When the policies pushed by Krugman did worse than he promised, he does not update his views. He just becomes even louder, claiming that the lack of success of Krugmaonomics just proves we need more of the exact same Krugman-style economics.
Imagine Krugman's reaction if the Bush administration people argued that the failure of their foreign policy and economic policy just proves we need more of the exact same recipe.
One of Krugman's dubious and partisan claims is that government policies to increase home ownership among poor americans and minorities had nothing to do with the sub prime-mortgage bubble. Here star Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago professor takes Krugman to task. Read it carefully.
If I understand the history involved correctly, the government sponsored enterprises that we have all come to know and love in the last few years invented sub-prime mortgage backed securities (MBS), which gives them a part of the blame of the crisis even if they had done nothing after this (which they did).
So, go read it all. It´s good for you.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Video Lecture on Fiscal Policy
I taught business environment to MBA students and in business environment, when we study economic environment, at that time, we have to learn fiscal policy. In this video lecture, you will learn the basics of fiscal policy.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
California School Districts Sued over Fees
The ACLU brought suit against several public school districts for allegedly charging fees to students for textbooks etc. The LA times article "ACLU sues California for allowing school districts to charge fees" reports that the suit alleges that more than 30 districts, including the Beverly Hills and Long Beach school districts "require students and their families to pay for basic supplies that are supposed to be provided at no cost". Given current financial conditions of CA public schools one obvious question is, what is the alternative? No books?
Friday, September 10, 2010
Identity Management at Oracle Open World
Oracle Open World is fast approaching and the time to register is NOW so you don't miss out. This year the show is going to be a blast. I have heard rumors about the band that will be performing one night but you know what they say about rumors. More importantly, the IDM team have a lot of new things to talk about at this years show. First, we released 11g this summer which included exciting new approaches like Service Oriented Security, better user experience and new features for:
- Oracle Identity Manager
- Oracle Access Manager
- Oracle Adaptive Access Manager
- Oracle Identity Analytics
| Date & Time | Title of Presentation | Location |
| Mon 11am | Oracle Identity Management 11g Overview | Moscone South 309 |
| Tue 2pm | Simplify IDM with Directory Services – | Moscone South 309 |
| Tues 3:30pm | Oracle’s IDM Strategy (for Sun, Oracle Customers Alike) | Moscone South 310 |
| Wed 1pm | Building a Strong Foundation for Your Cloud with IDM | Moscone South 309 |
| Wed 4:45pm | Complete Identity & Access Governance with OIA 11g | Moscone South 309 |
| Tues 5pm | How Cisco Achieved Large-Scale, Highly Available Access Management | Moscone South 310 |
The last time the Identity Management team was all together a few photo's were taken and I have included one from that fun event at Burton Catalyst. Hope you will be able to join us!
Monday, September 6, 2010
New Industrial Policy
New industrial policy was applied on 24th July 1991. There were many amendments in this industrial policy. New industrial policy is very different from old industrial policy.
Objectives of New Industrial Policy
1. Main objective of new industrial policy is to free industrial economy from unnecessary control of Indian administrators.
2. To reduce the weak points of different industries in India.
3. To start liberalization for connecting Indian Industries to foreign industries.
4. To remove the restrictions on direct foreign investment.
5. To remove the restrictions of MRTP act on domestic trades.
6. To try best to increase employment in industries.
7. To increase competitiveness in international trade.
8. To make the provision for increasing the profit of public organisations.
9. To 100% use of domestic resources of India.
10. To do more research for effective use of internal resources.
Objectives of New Industrial Policy
1. Main objective of new industrial policy is to free industrial economy from unnecessary control of Indian administrators.
2. To reduce the weak points of different industries in India.
3. To start liberalization for connecting Indian Industries to foreign industries.
4. To remove the restrictions on direct foreign investment.
5. To remove the restrictions of MRTP act on domestic trades.
6. To try best to increase employment in industries.
7. To increase competitiveness in international trade.
8. To make the provision for increasing the profit of public organisations.
9. To 100% use of domestic resources of India.
10. To do more research for effective use of internal resources.
Economic Reforms
Economic reform means to change and adjustments in internal economic structure according to the external economic changes. Following are main economic reforms :
1. First phase economic reforms
There were many changes in international markets, organisations and production areas. India started to accept all these changes. First phase of economic reforms was started in 1985 when Rajiv Gandhi was the prime minister of India. He announced new economic policy for increasing productivity, new technology import and effective use of human resources.
2. Second phase of economic reforms
In 1991-92, govt. of narsimaharav started second phase of economic reforms for reducing fiscal deficit which was 10891 crores of rupees. Govt had to take loan of Rs. 5 billion dollars from IMF. For effective use of resources, govt. started to get foreign investment.
3. Third phase of Economic Reforms
The Vajpayee administration continued with privatization, reduction of taxes, a sound fiscal policy aimed at reducing deficits and debts and increased initiatives for public works.
1. First phase economic reforms
There were many changes in international markets, organisations and production areas. India started to accept all these changes. First phase of economic reforms was started in 1985 when Rajiv Gandhi was the prime minister of India. He announced new economic policy for increasing productivity, new technology import and effective use of human resources.
2. Second phase of economic reforms
In 1991-92, govt. of narsimaharav started second phase of economic reforms for reducing fiscal deficit which was 10891 crores of rupees. Govt had to take loan of Rs. 5 billion dollars from IMF. For effective use of resources, govt. started to get foreign investment.
Before the process of reform began in 1991, the government attempted to close the Indian economy to the outside world. The Indian currency, the rupee, was inconvertible and high tariffs and import licensing prevented foreign goods reaching the market. India also operated a system of central planning for the economy, in which firms required licenses to invest and develop. The labyrinthine bureaucracy often led to absurd restrictions—up to 80 agencies had to be satisfied before a firm could be granted a licence to produce and the state would decide what was produced, how much, at what price and what sources of capital were used. The government also prevented firms from laying off workers or closing factories. The central pillar of the policy was import substitution, the belief that India needed to rely on internal markets for development, not international trade—a belief generated by a mixture of socialism and the experience of colonial exploitation. Planning and the state, rather than markets, would determine how much investment was needed in which sectors.
– BBC
3. Third phase of Economic Reforms
The Vajpayee administration continued with privatization, reduction of taxes, a sound fiscal policy aimed at reducing deficits and debts and increased initiatives for public works.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Introduction to Economic Planning
Economic planning is made for reducing economic risks. Under this planning, we can select best alternative for increasing the economic strength of company. Economic planning's other name is central planning and central economic planning.
In economic planning, we have to make plan regarding optimum use of our resources in producing of goods. We also have to make plan to produce optimum quantity of output. We can use economic planning at small level and at large level like investment decisions of Govt.
MNC uses economic planning for effective division of their resources in their different departments and branches. They also uses statistical techniques for calculating correlation of company's sale and other sale and one this basis, they make plan to increase sale.
In economic planning, we have to make plan regarding optimum use of our resources in producing of goods. We also have to make plan to produce optimum quantity of output. We can use economic planning at small level and at large level like investment decisions of Govt.
MNC uses economic planning for effective division of their resources in their different departments and branches. They also uses statistical techniques for calculating correlation of company's sale and other sale and one this basis, they make plan to increase sale.
Introduction to Economic Environment
We can introduce economic environment as all the factors which affect business due to changing the economic policies, economic system and economic conditions. In big companies, there may be large number of economist whose work is to make economic policies and economic planning. They control the prices of product of company. They also control the production level and try to best to reach it on optimum level. They monitor all external economic factors and to reduce company's economic weaknesses and risks.
Introduction to Environment Scanning
Scanning means to check carefully. Environment means group of factors which affect business. Environment scanning means the process which is helpful to check and analyze all the factors which affect business. With this, we can find our risks and opportunities.
In environment scanning, we introduce small level plans and policies for analyzing the future.
Importance of Environment Scanning
1. Effective Utilization of Resources
For success of business, it is very necessary to effective use of its resources without any wasting. With environment scanning, we can find company's weak points and other risks. After this, company can make good plans and policies for removing all these weak points and other risks. After this, it is sure, company will succeed in his life.
2. Constant Monitoring of the Environment
For success, it is also necessary to monitor the environment. After constant monitoring of the environment, we can face the problems due to internal and external factors and solve it on the time.
In environment scanning, we introduce small level plans and policies for analyzing the future.
Importance of Environment Scanning
1. Effective Utilization of Resources
For success of business, it is very necessary to effective use of its resources without any wasting. With environment scanning, we can find company's weak points and other risks. After this, company can make good plans and policies for removing all these weak points and other risks. After this, it is sure, company will succeed in his life.
2. Constant Monitoring of the Environment
For success, it is also necessary to monitor the environment. After constant monitoring of the environment, we can face the problems due to internal and external factors and solve it on the time.
Introduction to Business Environment
Business environment may be defined as the set of external and internal factors which affects the decisions of business. We can divide business environment into two parts
A. The Micro Environment of Business
These are powers which are deeply related with company and company can control these type of environment by improving its capacity and efficiency.
1. Suppliers
Suppliers are the persons who supply raw material to company.
2. Customers
Customers are the persons who buy goods from company.
3. Market Intermediaries
Market intermediaries are those person who helps company to sell its products.
4. Financial Intermediaries
Financial intermediaries are those institutions who provide loan, credit and advance to company.
5. Competitors
Competitors are those who also sell same product of company.
6. Public
Public is those group of people who can buy or who can show their interest to buy the products of company.
B. The Macro Environment of Business
Macro environment of business means all external factors which affects company and its business and there is no control of company on these factors.
1. Economic Environment
In economic environment, we can include govt. budget, import and export policies, economic system and economic conditions.
2. Political and Governmental Environment
In political and government environment, we can include legislature's decisions, executive's decisions and judiciary decision which affect company's business.
3. Socio cultural Environment
Socio-cultural environment includes morality, religion, education, health of peoples and family importance.
4. Natural Environment
In natural environment, we can include season, place elements, natural resources etc.
5. Demographic Environment
In demographic environment, we can include size of population, growth rate of population, age composition, sex composition and family size.
6. Technological Environment
In technological environment, we can include ecommerce technology, online payment, Internet technology, mobile banking and 3G technology and all other new technology which affect company's business.
7. International Environment
In international environment, we can includes rules and regulation of WTO, WB and MNC's affect on our company's business.
A. The Micro Environment of Business
These are powers which are deeply related with company and company can control these type of environment by improving its capacity and efficiency.
1. Suppliers
Suppliers are the persons who supply raw material to company.
2. Customers
Customers are the persons who buy goods from company.
3. Market Intermediaries
Market intermediaries are those person who helps company to sell its products.
4. Financial Intermediaries
Financial intermediaries are those institutions who provide loan, credit and advance to company.
5. Competitors
Competitors are those who also sell same product of company.
6. Public
Public is those group of people who can buy or who can show their interest to buy the products of company.
B. The Macro Environment of Business
Macro environment of business means all external factors which affects company and its business and there is no control of company on these factors.
1. Economic Environment
In economic environment, we can include govt. budget, import and export policies, economic system and economic conditions.
2. Political and Governmental Environment
In political and government environment, we can include legislature's decisions, executive's decisions and judiciary decision which affect company's business.
3. Socio cultural Environment
Socio-cultural environment includes morality, religion, education, health of peoples and family importance.
4. Natural Environment
In natural environment, we can include season, place elements, natural resources etc.
5. Demographic Environment
In demographic environment, we can include size of population, growth rate of population, age composition, sex composition and family size.
6. Technological Environment
In technological environment, we can include ecommerce technology, online payment, Internet technology, mobile banking and 3G technology and all other new technology which affect company's business.
7. International Environment
In international environment, we can includes rules and regulation of WTO, WB and MNC's affect on our company's business.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
How to Do Conflict Management
To remove conflict is major challenge for conflict management. First of all, concentrate all dealers on subordinate goals of company. If there is big confliction between company and dealers, then company can take some meeting with dealers and agree them by giving positive arguments.
* Diplomacy :- A person goes to dealer and resolve the confliction
* Mediation :- Solve problem by expert of third party.
* Arbitration :- Agreement between two party by giving argument and confliction by arbitrator.
* Diplomacy :- A person goes to dealer and resolve the confliction
* Mediation :- Solve problem by expert of third party.
* Arbitration :- Agreement between two party by giving argument and confliction by arbitrator.
Conflict Management
Conflict management is the process to reduce the problems of channel of distribution by solving them effective ways.
Main conflicts
Suppose company wants to achieve rapid market. In this case fix low price policy. But all dealers are seeing short run high profit. So, they are charging high profit margin and products are not sold easily by dealers. It will create confliction between dealers and company
Main conflicts
Suppose company wants to achieve rapid market. In this case fix low price policy. But all dealers are seeing short run high profit. So, they are charging high profit margin and products are not sold easily by dealers. It will create confliction between dealers and company
Channel Management
Definition of Channel Management
Channel management means to select good middlemen and distribute the goods through them at cost effective.
Function of Channel Management
1. Selecting channel members
Before selecting good middlemen, check intermediary's experience and past reputation.
2. Training channel members
To train channel for proper work
3. Motivate channel members
4. Evaluate channel
Channel management means to select good middlemen and distribute the goods through them at cost effective.
Function of Channel Management
1. Selecting channel members
Before selecting good middlemen, check intermediary's experience and past reputation.
2. Training channel members
To train channel for proper work
3. Motivate channel members
4. Evaluate channel
Types of Marketing Channels
A. Conventional Channel or Non- Integrated Channel
1. Manufacturer to Consumer
In this channel there is no intermediary. Manufacturer makes the goods and directly distributes to consumers.
2. Manufacturer to Retailer to Consumer
Retailer is the intermediary between manufacturer and consumer. He purchases goods from manufacturer and sells to consumer.
3. Manufacturer to Wholesaler to Retailer to Consumer
In this channel, there are two option, one is wholesaler and other is retailer. Wholesaler buys large scale and sells to retailer and the retailer sells to consumer.
4. Manufacturer to Wholesaler to Consumer
Consumer can buy easily and directly from wholesaler. So, in this channel there is only one intermediary and he is wholesaler.
5. Manufacturer to agent to wholesaler to retailer to consumer
B. Integrated Channel or Non conventional channels
Integrated channel are modern channel for distribution of goods. These channel can be divided into two parts.
1. Vertical Channel
Vertical channel is that corporate channel which are useful for the flow of products which are capital nature. In this, if one company contracts with other manufacturers who will convert the capital product into most usable shape and sell it to the dealers. Then it will be vertical channel.
2. Horizontal Channel
Two companies join together for marketing of any product for reducing competition and excess capacity.
1. Manufacturer to Consumer
In this channel there is no intermediary. Manufacturer makes the goods and directly distributes to consumers.
2. Manufacturer to Retailer to Consumer
Retailer is the intermediary between manufacturer and consumer. He purchases goods from manufacturer and sells to consumer.
3. Manufacturer to Wholesaler to Retailer to Consumer
In this channel, there are two option, one is wholesaler and other is retailer. Wholesaler buys large scale and sells to retailer and the retailer sells to consumer.
4. Manufacturer to Wholesaler to Consumer
Consumer can buy easily and directly from wholesaler. So, in this channel there is only one intermediary and he is wholesaler.
5. Manufacturer to agent to wholesaler to retailer to consumer
B. Integrated Channel or Non conventional channels
Integrated channel are modern channel for distribution of goods. These channel can be divided into two parts.
1. Vertical Channel
Vertical channel is that corporate channel which are useful for the flow of products which are capital nature. In this, if one company contracts with other manufacturers who will convert the capital product into most usable shape and sell it to the dealers. Then it will be vertical channel.
2. Horizontal Channel
Two companies join together for marketing of any product for reducing competition and excess capacity.
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